Pre PRU 13: Jostling for power in Sabah

dari ChangkatNingkeBTP

By Joceline Tan, 29th July 2012

Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Musa Aman is pretty much in control as he prepares to take on an ambitious and crowded field of opposition parties in the general election.

SABAH Umno politician Datuk Lajim Ukin celebrated his 57th birthday last month by resigning as the Umno branch chairman of Karambai Kebatu. There were about 500 guests at the party and there was much clapping and cheering but no one was really surprised.

Lajim had been playing the “going to resign game” for months and as Philip Golingai, The Star's journalist who is from Sabah, put it: “After so many false starts, the issue has become a bit of a joke.”

In charge: Musa is not known as a ‘smiling tiger’ for nothing and everyone treads carefully around him.

Quitting his branch post was an anti-climax and some likened it to servingnasi goreng after promising a kenduri. But yesterday, he finally resigned from the Umno supreme council as well as the Beaufort Umno division chief. However, he is holding on to his deputy housing and local government post.

Jokes aside, Lajim is not exactly a small fry. He is paramount chief of the Bisaya community, a small, largely Muslim ethnic group in Sabah. He is a big fish in a small pond and Umno's concern is whether the other fishes will swim with him because Lajim is an Ali Rustam kind of politician generous and always there for his constituents.

Lajim's name may not ring much of a bell in the peninsula but he has been in Sabah politics since 1985. More than that, he has always wanted to be the Chief Minister of Sabah.

The latest news is that Lajim and another Barisan big name Datuk Wilfred Bumburing, the Tuaran MP and Upko deputy president, may announce quitting their respective parties today.

Some do not understand the fuss over two ageing politicians doing the frog thing. But Lajim and Bumburing are major names in their own right and every parliamentary seat will count in the battle for Putrajaya.

Both PKR and DAP have been making overtures to the two MPs. The irony is that while Pakatan leaders condemn party-hopping in the peninsula, they are openly encouraging it in Sabah.

The opposition in Sabah has not been this ambitious in years. They think the political tsunami has reached their shores. Lajim and Bumburing are just a small part in the bigger opposition scene currently dominated by STAR (State Reform Party) and SAPP (Sabah Progressive Party).

Arnold: Caused ripples with analysis on vulnerable seats.

STAR is led by Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, the younger brother of Tan Sri Joseph Pairin Kitingan, while SAPP is led by firebrand Datuk Yong Teck Lee. Both began their political career in PBS and Dr Jeffrey has been through one too many parties.

Actually, Sabah politicians are in a class of their own when it comes to party-hopping and Dr Jeffrey's last stop was PKR which he left amid some acrimony.

Dr Jeffrey has grown older and stockier and is no longer the “cute Kitingan brother” but he is still charming and ambitious. His latest battle cry of “Sabah for Sabahans” has captured local imagination.

He has revived what he calls the Borneo Agenda, basically the 20 Points spelling out regional rights and autonomy for Sabah when it became part of the Federation of Malaysia in 1963. He has been accused of flogging an old horse to win new votes but the 20 Points have always resonated with the Kadazandusun who feel overwhelmed by federal dominance and issues such as Islamisation and illegal immigrants.

But it is a rather sensitive topic, its advocates have often been painted as secessionists, and Dr Jeffrey was once held under the ISA for pushing it.

“Jeffrey's new platform could be a vote-spoiler in the Kadazandusun seats,” said a Kota Kinabalu-based journalist.

Sabah political scientist Dr Arnold Puyok told a forum a few days ago that at least three parliamentary seats could go to the opposition and as many as 18 state seats in urban and Kadazandusun areas could go either way.

Jeffrey: Making news in local papers every other day.

His analysis caused ripples because the opposition had won only one state and one parliamentary seats in 2008. Sabah has 60 state seats and 25 parliamentary seats.

“Pairin is not the Pairin of 20 years ago and the younger generation Kadazandusuns like what Dr Jeffrey is saying,” said Dr Arnold.

Dr Jeffrey is not quite a gamechanger but he could take away votes from PBS and Upko, the other two Kadazandusun parties who are in Barisan.

But, said Golingai, so much water has passed under the bridge since Malaysia was formed that advocating the 20 Points is like promising that Singapore will come back to Malaysia. Then there is the issue of the person saying it. Dr Jeffrey still has political appeal but the intelligentsia are no longer buying his medicine.

The challenge for the opposition is how to strike an agreement among themselves so that there will be only one-to-one fights with the Barisan. It will not be easy because SAPP and DAP are eyeing the same seats while Jeffrey is unlikely to give way to PKR on choice seats. There is no love lost between Dr Jeffrey and Anwar.

“We have been talking with STAR. We hope to reach an understanding so that we won't split the votes,” said SAPP's Women chief Melanie Chia.

Even Dr Arnold cannot see that sort of cooperation among the four main opposition parties at least not yet.

Every politician in Sabah wants to be an election candidate and every warlord thinks he is Chief Minister material. For instance, Lajim and Bumburing's latest political moves have to do with the fact that they may not be retained as candidates in the general election and are looking for a new platform for the contest.

Lajim: Still yearning to be Chief Minister of Sabah.

Moreover, the opposition is only as strong as their opponent is weak and, as many have pointed out, Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Musa Aman is no weakling. He is very much in control. There have been grouses and complaints about contracts and projects in connection to his government but it would be a mistake to underestimate him.

He came into the Chief Minister's office in 2003 with a reputation as Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's man. His appointment came at the end of the disastrous rotation system where the Barisan component parties took two-year turns to be Chief Minister.

Kota Belud MP Datuk Rahman Dahlan, who used to be his political secretary, said Musa works well under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

Musa has a corporate style and a penchant for pinstripe suits, and his state has been praised by the Auditor-General for good management. He has put the Sabah administration back on an even keel and brought changes to the state.

He has also become very powerful after nine years on the job. He is not known as a “smiling tiger” for nothing; his Cabinet ministers are scared of him while the media fraternity in Kota Kinabalu finds him a little too thin-skinned.

Putrajaya sees him as someone who is reliable and, according to Rahman, the Prime Minister once said to Musa, “I have been to all the states but when I think about Sabah, I can sleep well.”

Musa's younger Foreign Minister brother Datuk Seri Anifah is a political ally of Najib and his elder brother Datuk Ayub runs the New Sabah Timesnewspaper. The paper does not have a big circulation but it is an interesting indication of the politics of the powerful Aman brothers.

For instance, it broke the story about Lajim wanting to quit. Everyone knows Musa and Lajim cannot stand each other and, rightly or wrongly, the report was read as the Musa camp being eager to see the last of Lajim.

Chia: Opposition working to strike agreement on seats.

But Musa's real rival is Rural and Regional Development Minister Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal. Their supporters have been playing political one-upmanship with each other. For instance when the controversial Sarawak Report linked Musa to some alleged financial dealings in Hong Kong, the driver of a sexy actress emerged to allege that she received sizeable sums of money from Shafie.

It was all very tit for tat and quite scandalous. But it has died down and it is understood that supporters of Musa and Shafie have called a truce. Both are seasoned politicians who understand this is an election year. Their aim is to win the election, and then they can resume their rivalry.

This will be Musa's most difficult election since becoming Chief Minister and his political future hinges on it.

Apart from the 18 marginal state seats, said Dr Arnold, Musa should have no problems holding on to the remaining 42. But he has to contain the effect of Dr Jeffrey's party in the Kadazandusun areas and he should be worried that Lajim and Bumburing could cause an upset if they go against the Barisan in their respective constituencies.

How well the Barisan does will also depend on whether the rival opposition parties can reach an understanding on seats. Anything other than a one-to-one fight against the Barisan will only result in splitting the opposition vote.

The opposition infighting, it is said, will be as great as that in the Barisan as politicians lobby for candidature and seats.

Anwar had planned to join Lajim at a political function in Sabah last month as a prelude to Lajim's departure from Umno. But a thunderstorm in Kota Kinabalu caused his plane to be diverted to Labuan. The locals had joked that the elements were not in favour of their collaboration.

Today, Anwar is again scheduled to join Lajim and Bumburing in Sabah, reportedly to launch the Sabah Reform Front, a movement that is aligned to Pakatan.

Hopefully the weather will be kinder to them this time because it is not going to be sunshine and everything nice once the election campaign begins. It will be a tooth-and-nail fight for control of Sabah.